El Robo Mayor (2)*

Un País para Querer

Read this essay in English

Siendo joven, una de mis actividades favoritas era recorrer Venezuela. Cuando niño, con mis padres y mis tíos, rodé por esas carreteras, yendo a playas  tanto cercanas como lejanas – Macuto, Naiguatá, Cata, La Restinga… Por el alto llano de Barinas y las montañas de los Andes… y Guayana, sobre el Puente Angostura y hasta el Guri.

Ya algo mayor hacía excursiones frecuentes al Ávila, trasnochando en la Silla de Caracas con amigos de escuela y luego, como joven profesional soltero con compañeros de parranda, reinicié esos recorridos por el país, por Venezuela. Durmiendo en pensiones de mala muerte en San Fernando de Apure o amaneciendo en el carro con dolor de cabeza por el aire enrarecido del Páramo de Mucuchíes; parado sobre piedras del precipicio al final de la península de Araya o acampando en las arenas de Paraguaná con mi hermano, viendo a lo lejos el resplandor nocturno de Amuay. Pisé guano en El Guácharo. Visité reinas de belleza en Barquisimeto. Tomé menjurjes, cervezas y ron en Sorte, Guasdualito y San Francisco de Yare. Comí nieve en el Pico Espejo y caminé tempranas nieblas merideñas junto a mi joven y bella esposa venezolana. Experiencias inolvidables.

Las gentes de Venezuela éramos una sola gente. Andinos o margariteños, maracuchos o guayaneses, caraqueños o llaneros, todos queríamos lo mismo: una mejor Venezuela, un mejor futuro. El anhelo común de todo ser humano. 



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ESTE ENSAYO Y OTROS ESTÁN DISPONIBLES EN SU TOTALIDAD EN
LA VENEZUELA IMPOSIBLE: 

CRÓNICAS Y REFLEXIONES SOBRE DEMOCRACIA Y LIBERTAD 
DE CARLOS J. RANGEL

La Locura del Liderazgo

To read this essay in English, click here.

El del Sur.

Los Estados Unidos fueron atacados el lunes 24 de noviembre del 2014. El mayor ataque cibernético que se haya perpetrado hasta la fecha puso de rodillas a una gran corporación y afectó a miles de personas. El ataque a Sony se ha determinado con 99% de certeza que se originó en Corea del Norte, su líder motivado por la percepción de haber sido atacado primero  por unos jóvenes cineastas comediantes de Hollywood con insultos a su arrogancia y pomposidad. Hasta esas alturas, las trágicas y caricaturescas payasadas de Kim Jung-Un, el "Líder Supremo", habían sido ignoradas en su mayoría por el pueblo estadounidense. Aun cuando el impacto directo para Sony parece moderado en contexto (se estima en alrededor de 15 millones de dólares), el impacto a compañías y agencias obligadas a incrementar su seguridad cibernética, el impacto personal a personas asociadas pero no parte directa de Sony, y el trauma psíquico sobre toda la ciudadanía norte-americana, no es cuantificable. Todo porque un desatado solitario se enojó con los EE. UU.

La locura del liderazgo no es exclusiva a tierras del Lejano Oriente. Enfrentando pobreza masiva, hambre, y un deterioro en calidad de vida que va desde la salud hasta la seguridad personal, el gobierno de Nicolás Maduro en Venezuela ha reiterado el lema populista favorito: la culpa es de ‘LOS OTROS’. Sean internos (burguesitos), externos (el Imperio) y/o en combinación conspirativa. Sin embargo, la falta de soluciones verdaderas para los problemas cada día más numerosos que sufre el país está resultando en un aumento desenfrenado de la autocracia represiva en intentos fallidos de control, y puede conducir a acciones virulentas e irracionales en contra de los Estados Unidos.

El Sr. Maduro es un personaje pintoresco. Persiguiendo la sombra de su carismático y más pintoresco mentor, el fallecido Hugo Chávez, Maduro no da la talla ante el ídolo muerto. Y no porque no lo haya intentado. En estilo de dinastía electoral se autocalifica “Hijo de Chávez”; declara que el espíritu de Chávez le habla en forma de pajarito; toca cuatro durante mítines; y en conferencias de prensa y cadenas televisivas imita el estilo paternalista y condescendiente de los discursos de El Difunto.

Sin embargo, la visión nostálgica de los chavistas siempre verá a Maduro como inadecuado en comparación: no se puede competir con El Muerto. El chavismo...


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ESTE ENSAYO Y OTROS ESTÁN DISPONIBLES EN SU TOTALIDAD EN
LA VENEZUELA IMPOSIBLE: 

CRÓNICAS Y REFLEXIONES SOBRE DEMOCRACIA Y LIBERTAD 
DE CARLOS J. RANGEL

The Madness of Leadership.

The One South of Us.

Para leer este ensayo en español haga click aquí.

On Monday November 24^th 2014, the US was attacked.  The largest ever cyberattack to date brought a major corporation to its knees and affected the lives of thousands of people.  The Sony hack has been determined with 99% certainty to have come from North Korea, motivated by a perceived attack on its arrogance and self-importance by some comedy filmmakers in Hollywood.  Up to then, the tragic cartoonish buffoonery of the Supreme Leader, Kim Jung-Un, had been dismissed in America as innocuous for the most part.  While the direct financial impact on Sony is reported at $15M, the overall impact on all corporations and agencies now boosting cyber-security, the personal impact on people associated but not part of Sony, and the gut impact on the American psyche is unquantifiable. All because one rogue person got mad at the US.

The madness of leadership is not singular to faraway lands.  Faced with mass poverty, starvation and deteriorating standards of living from health to personal safety, the government of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela has doubled down on the populist solution of choice, blame the OTHERS: internal (petty bourgeois), external (the Empire) or/and a combination of both conspiring.  The lack of real solutions to the country's increasing problems, however has led to increased autocratic measures and can lead to even more irrational vitriol and actions targeting the US.

Mr. Maduro is a colorful character. Chasing the shadow of his more charismatic and even more colorful mentor, the late Hugo Chávez, he cannot live up to the idolized vision of a dead leader. He has tried: in dynastic, electoral mode, he called himself "The Son of Chávez"; he claims that the spirit of Chávez talks to him in the form of a little bird; he plays the Cuatro (a variation of the ukulele) during rallies; he mimics the affected paternalistic and condescending speech patterns of the late Chávez in press conferences and intervened TV programming (cadenas).
 

The nostalgic view of the Chavistas will always render Maduro as inadequate. Chavismo fooled a great majority of people some of the time and still some has some fooled all of the time (for more on this read my previous essay-- With a Heavy Heart: Facing the Failures of Chavismo). But the intractable problems of the economy and society that face Maduro now are direct consequence of Chavismo.  The festive party with no realistic vision of tomorrow that Chávez led, buoyed by high priced oil used to buy and curry favors from fair weather friends, is over. Now it is time to pay the piper.

Caudillismo on Steroids.

The leader cult runs deep in Venezuela. From the time of Simon Bolivar, and with roots in Spanish King authority, strong leaders have been venerated in a quasi religious manner, adding them to the Santeria pantheon that underlies popular beliefs.  Santeria is a mixture of Afro-Caribbean, American (Venezuelan) Indian and Christian rituals with an Earth Goddess named Maria Leonza at its center. It is said that most if not all Venezuelan presidents have had links of one sort or another to this undercurrent culture.  Not by coincidence, a similar cult exists in Cuba where Maria Leonza is substituted by their own Sea-Earth Goddess, Yemayá.

This idolatry of the leader, of course, is not a Venezuela exclusive and North Korea once again comes to mind, particularly in its close association with religious practice.  While nominally a secular atheist state, devotion to the Supreme Leader has replaced traditional organized religion.  This devotion has a name, Juche, centered on the cult of the Kim dynasty. According to Juche teachings, life after death exists only if the society that defined that life is continued. The Juche calendar begins with patriarch Kim Il-Sung's birth in 1912.

The cozy relationship begun with Chávez between North Korea and Venezuela deepened under Maduro, with the announcement in October 2013 of a reopening of the North Korean Embassy in Caracas and a cooperation agreement between the legislative chambers. In typical flamboyant rhetoric of insecure autocratic regimes, the newly appointed NK ambassador to Venezuela, Jon Yong-Jin, is reported to have said that "if the US government dared to engage in a military attack on Venezuela, North Korea would not think twice before joining the fight against the empire". (Aporrea)

Not much has been heard from Ambassador Jon since his recall to North Korea after his brother in law Jang Sung-Taek, who was also Kim Jong-Un's uncle, was executed by the Supreme Leader by feeding him to angry dogs in December 2013. Kim was purging his government of enemies out to get him.

Paranoia, imagined plots and savage repression come with the unbridled actions of the "supreme" be it Leader or Commander (as in the case of Chávez). Since his ascension to power in 2013, Maduro has claimed to have uncovered dozens of coup and anti government conspiracies. Usually when public opinion of the government needs a boost. Conspirators in his little red book have included journalists, store owners, former ambassadors, and student leaders. All, of course, aided and abetted by the US and their cadre of gringo-loving local business men. In his latest uncovered counterrevolutionary plot, he arrested four missionaries from North Dakota plotting to undermine the health system of the country. A few months ago it was the turn of the head of a major hospital alerting to possible pandemics due to the shortages of health supplies of all sorts.

Feverish hatred and paranoia can lead to bad decisions and consequences for all parties.  The repressive nature of the Venezuelan regime is reaching new heights. From the mundane, such as HR memos in state owned enterprises urging fellow workers to denounce anyone they know traveling to the US, to the unabashed, such as arrests of high profile opposition leaders detained on trumped up charges and held indefinitely awaiting arraignment and trial. Other less prominent opponents from the working and student populations are routinely arrested and recorded as enemies of the state, to be harassed and black balled in employment and school under the watchful eye of Chavismo.  Read more here about Democracy under Chavismo.

Public protests are now, by government decree, (un)lawfully squashed with live ammo. In a recent incident a fourteen year old boy, Kluiverth Roa, huddled and scared behind a car after running away from the repressed protest march, was shot point blank in the head by a police officer in charge of stopping the protests. And those are the incidents that make the news. While that particular victim's family may get a modicum of redress, the population at large gets the message: repression is here to stay.

Kluiverth Roa, Murdered by a Shot to the Head

Survival Mode.

The shattered economy is evident in the streets, where shop owners big and small are constantly harassed while protected peddlers thrive in a corrupt black market of goods sold way over their regulated prices. Byzantine foreign exchange regulations and the collapse in oil revenues has led to scarcity of essential goods and foods in a country where local production has been all but squashed by Chavista zealotry. Hard to find products include sanitary napkins, toilet paper and, of course, medicines and medical supplies of all sorts.  The collapse of health care has forced many to increasingly rely on home medicines and witchcraft solutions.  The slogan "Socialist Fatherland or Death" used by Chavez rings so true now.

Army Captain Diosdado Cabello

The "Cartel de los Soles" (Cartel of the Suns, named for the insignias of Generals) --the military led narcotrafficking ring-- keeps a firm grip on the government and represses any possible military dissension. From its beginning, in association the Colombian narco-guerrilla FARC, top elements in the military establishment first protected and then appropriated the drug business in the region. Former Vice-President and now National Assembly Speaker, Capt. (act.) Diosdado Cabello was Chavez's liaison with the FARC and is now a leading figure in this cartel (For a reported chronology of the growth of Venezuela as a Military Drug State, follow the links at the end of this essay).

The social contract is a shambles by Chavez's own creations: the Social Missions and "Colectivos". These are groups of die hard Chavistas set up in neighborhoods to enforce Chavista rule. These groups in many cases have become gangs that terrorize their charges and fight each other. In a high profile case a leading and rising young Chavista star, Assembly Member Roberto Serra, was recently stabbed to death by members of his own bodyguards composed of Mission thugs in a rivalry dispute of some kind.

The colectivos have become a de-facto militia, armed, trained and supported institutionally, and called upon when needed to repress anti-government protests. But this dragon nurtured by the regime needs to be fed and Maduro has a hard time complying. The recent death of an outspoken colectivo leader, Jose Odreman, under a hail of police bullets, came shortly after he was denouncing Maduro's wavering to Chavista principles.

The ingredients for desperation moves are all there. Political intrigue, massive corruption and a repressed population make for a simmering cauldron that President Maduro is well aware of. He needs to cater to his core base of dyed-in-the-wool Chavistas that maintain the Panglossian virtues of socialist Chavista principles. This faction pulls him away from any possible compromise that could affect the unsustainable favor-purchasing economic policies that are at the core of Chavismo --and populism in general.

Given such conditions, distractions are in order.  Repeated ad-nauseam uncovered coup plots form the continuing saga of Maduro's tenure. He uses these supposed revelations to justify repressive moves towards the population and opposition leaders, and dramatically accuses "The Empire" of attempting to strike him down. His latest move, forcing the US Embassy to all but shut down with a skeleton crew of 17 accredited officers, issuing (laughable) travel bans to a who's who list in American politics and increasing travel restrictions for US citizens into Venezuela, follows a pattern of growing aggression towards the US which, despite it all, is Venezuela's still biggest trading partner and source of hard currency. 

After returning home empty handed from a beggar's tour of Venezuela's allies, China, Russia, Iran and the Arab world, Maduro in contradictory statements said "God will provide" while claiming success. He even announced an odd plan to help Qatar import foodstuffs from Venezuela --disregarding the fact that there is no home grown food in Venezuela. In his visit to Iran he reiterated the strong ties between both countries, ties that may weaken if the US succeeds in reestablishing diplomatic relations with that country. 

 The Cuba-US "apertura" further isolates Venezuela and Maduro, the face of Chavismo, faces a lonely future indeed. Maduro may not prevail but Chavismo, true to its Marxist-Leninist roots, will continue to crush opposition and not give an inch, regardless of its figurehead. Venezuela's closest remaining ally will be North Korea, sympathetic to Chavismo's struggle against the Empire, and a model to follow in socialist rule. Having a powerful common enemy, a shattered populace and similar messianic tendencies make these regimes find common ground to support each other; and possibly act in concert in accordance to the madness of their leadership.

 

Cartel de Los Soles: Venezuela's Government Protected Drug Cartel.

2015 - DEA and US Attorneys build their cases against high ranking government officials - The Wall Street Journal

2015 – National Assembly President and former Vice President, Capt. (Army, Act.) Diosdado Cabello: http://interamericansecuritywatch.com/diosdado-cabellos-head-of-security-defects-to-the-u-s-and-accuses-him-of-narcotrafficking/

2014  - Drugs and the military: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/04/14/venezuela-s-agony-weak-president-strong-generals-riots-and-cocaine.html

2014 - Too Big to Arrest: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/28/us-venezuela-usa-arrest-idUSKBN0FW0QX20140728

2013 - Too Big to Hide: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/23/us-france-cocaine-idUSBRE98M00920130923

2005 Getting rid of snoops: http://www.boston.com/news/world/latinamerica/articles/2005/08/19/venezuelan_leader_vows_to_cut_us_antidrug_work/?page=full

2005  - Getting rid of the competition: http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/1279

All images copyright their respective owners.

 

21st Century Barbarians

Not enough is known about the downing of Flight 17 over rebel-held Ukraine. The largest unknown so far is the primordial one: why? Who gains from such a barbaric act? What mind could think that shooting a missile into a civilian airliner would gather any type of sympathy for any type of cause? To consider civilian targets justifiable clearly brands the culprits as terrorists, no question. There is no honest mistake owned up to or collateral damage claimed in this action as far as news reports have uncovered. It appears to have been intentional and, if the shoot down itself was not, the cover up, misdirection and disavowing are indicators of a moral turpitude of the highest magnitude.  

Photographic evidence and intercepted communications by surveillance services indict as culprits the separatist rebels of eastern Ukraine. Separatists incited, trained and armed by Russia under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, who seeks to assert that historically ethnic Russians living in foreign lands are entitled to territorial claims and subservience to their ancestral home country. This doctrine is destabilizing and dangerous and to leave it unchallenged will lead to greater conflict, not only in Russia’s sphere of influence, but in China’s and others, as well as the Middle East region.

The United States cannot turn a blind eye to this barbaric act and its recognizable origin in Russia’s ethnic based expansionist doctrine. But it cannot escalate out of proportion to the act itself. There are actions that can be taken to provide the adequate response.

1. The shooting of the airliner with a missile is in and of itself a clear terrorist act, prosecutable and punishable by international law. Anyone aiding these terrorists is complicit and should be treated as such—and hunted down. 
2. A massive diplomatic black balling should be coordinated: The Russian government representatives in each of the countries with victims should be admonished and given clear instructions from these countries. The ambassadors to Russia from each of these countries should be recalled for consultation.
3. Despite the Security Council veto power from Russia, resolutions should be put forward condemning in the strongest language the rebels’ actions and calling for their disarmament.
4. NATO should mobilize and, with assistance from the US and cooperation from the Ukraine government, deploy armed drones to destroy all rebel SAM bases and equipment in eastern Ukraine. By attacking an international vessel, the rebels have called for such an international response.
5. Navy ships should be deployed within cruise and perhaps even interceptor missile range of rebel bases and troops in eastern Ukraine.

While these are escalating actions and susceptible to fog of war, they are acceptable and proportional responses that still leave room for diplomatic solutions. I just hope that someone out there has a better idea. What is not a good idea is to not react to 21^st Century barbarians.

Carlos J. Rangel

Venezuela: A Call for Democracy

 

A repeated misinformation screed by Venezuelan government officials is that opposition plotters want to overthrow the government, trash the constitution and return to the failed policies of the pre-Chávez past. This refrain is used in public appearances and pronouncements under the Goebbels theory that if repeated enough, enough people will believe it to be the truth. Facts, however, belie these statements. Despite blatant electoral distortions, the opposition has repeatedly participated in elections. Opposition leaders have recognized the failings of the political model that led to the unrest of the 90’s, and in most instances defend the social net created under Chávez. Some, like the imprisoned Leopoldo López, have done community organizing to improve conditions in poor neighborhoods, using the Chávez model. That is the positive Chávez legacy: recognition of the need to redress social and economic disparities.

Negative aspects of that legacy include the virulent sectarian discourse used to belittle and prevaricate about the opposition and any perceived enemies. Chávez’s famous smelling of the sulfur in the UN, referring to President GW Bush, is pittance compared to the epithets and lies used against domestic opponents. A new low is the constant homo-hateful innuendos used by Maduro during the presidential campaign and to this day against his rival Henrique Capriles, as well as blatant dismissive sexism against opposition assemblywoman Maria Corina Machado.

Mud slinging could be comically entertaining if the stakes were not so high, as pervasive sectarian speech is a threat to any democracy. Belittling the opposition, characterizing opponents as enemies, and the call to “Socialist Homeland or Death!” used to end public appearances has created a fractured society—and is probably behind the disregard for life reflected in the 70 murders a day in 2013. Hate speech comes in many forms but is always a creeping social cancer.

Polls reflect a majority of Venezuelans consider their nation to be in crisis. In a recent Op-ed in the NYT Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, sought to defend his government and policies with facts supporting his position (Venezuela: A Call for Peace). But many of those facts are either outright misrepresentations or panglossian distortions. His sound-bite essay needs a reply with long facts.

Per Capita National Income and the GINI Coefficient, Revisited.

Economic and social numbers are sometimes difficult to read and with propaganda masters behind them can be obfuscating. Despite information limitations,however, inferences can be made that contradict Maduro’s assertions of increased social welfare under chavismo.

On its face, Gross National Income per Capita (GNI/pC) in Venezuela has increased from a little over $4,000 in 2004 up to almost $12,500 in 2012. During this period, it should be noted, the price of oil increased nearly 90%. The Gross National Income, as calculated by the World Bank, quantifies the GDP in local currency converted to US$ and adjusted for inflation. Unfortunately, the official GNI/pC may not reflect realities on the Venezuelan kitchen table.

It is illegal since 2010 to inform or publicize or use any ForEx number that is not the official rate of exchange, i.e. 6.30 bolivars per dollar. Brokers went to jail for posting “parallel market” exchange rates, and at least eight websites doing the same have local access blocked while their authors remain anonymous to avoid prosecution.  Any official number, such as the GNI/pC can legally only be calculated using that official exchange rate. 

In 2010 the parallel (black) market rate—the rate at which many businesses were forced to operate due to the Byzantine and corrupt bureaucratic entanglement that the dollar allocation system has engendered—went from 6.30 to 9.14 bolivars per dollar at year’s end. That, on its face, would imply a devaluation of close to 45%. It is estimated that the government itself has been deficit financing by intervening in black market transactions, supplying about 20% of commercially needed dollars. To be fair, not all transactions are in black market dollars, but if only 30% (including government participation) of them are, as companies and individuals are forced to this market for their needs, the estimated devaluation for 2010 would have been around 14%.

		estimated supply
Value (rate) in 2004 (Bs per US$)	Bs 1.92
Official Rate 2010	Bs 6.30	70% of demand
“Black” Rate end of 2010	Bs 9.14	30% of demand
Weighted Value 2010	Bs 7.15
“Black” Devaluation Jan-Dec 2010	45%
“Black” Devaluation 2004 to 2010	376%
Weighted Devaluation Jan-Dec 2010	14%
Official Rate 2012	Bs 6.30	70% of demand
“Black” Rate end of 2012	Bs 17.33	30% of demand
Weighted Value 2012	Bs 9.61
Weighted Devaluation 2010 to 2012	53%
Official Rate 2013	Bs 6.30	65% of demand
“Black” Rate end of 2013	Bs 63.70	15% of demand
SICAD I (Preferential allocation rate)	Bs 10.00	25% of demand
Weighted Value 2013	Bs 20.19
Weighted Devaluation 2012-2013	110%

The same calculation implies a devaluation of over 52% by 2012, as the black market rate shot up to Bs 17.33 per dollar. What this means is a brutal recessive adjustment in the real GNI/pC from US$10,140 in 2009 to $5,916 in 2012, a 52% decrease in the official numbers. The seeds of chavista economic disaster were already bearing fruit during this period, under Chávez.

Lack of transparency and arcane multi-tier rates make it difficult to estimate accurate numbers but certainly a decrease in national income per capita has occurred. Even being generous, the Gross National Income per Capita was reduced at least by a third over 2010-2012.  In 2013, with a black market rate of 63.70 Bs per dollar, the estimated devaluation over 2012, notwithstanding the new preferential allocation rate tier, was around 120%. Maduro claims solutions are in the works to diminish the pressure on the currency, including a market-based auction rate, which at its launch placed free market dollars over 50 Bs per dollar, and a tourist/visitor rate, which in effect will extract hard currency from anyone visiting Venezuela (current black market rates - note: distribution of this information is illegal in Venezuela).

The pressure on the currency has a twofold origin. First, the productive sector collapsed; after a frenzy of repeated expropriations and takeovers, many industries and farm production shut down. This led to increased imports of even basic staples—flour, cooking oil, sanitary napkins... Second, the greatest generator of foreign currency, the oil company PDVSA, sells its products to the government which in turn barters oil for services or sells it below market prices in petro-diplomacy efforts. The government has not paid PDVSA and has a gigantic debt with the company: $23bn as per PDVSA’s 2012 financial statements.


This is not sound economic policy. The economic consequences threaten hyperinflation. The immediate result is negative wealth distribution and this is what the Coefficient of Equality of Income Distribution (GINI) reflects. Equal distribution of increasingly scant resources is not progress. The GINI coefficient for Venezuela (39 in 2011) indeed points to a greater equality in distribution of wealth than in the past, it is the same as countries like Mauritania and Malawi, more equal distribution than in the US and a little less than in Bhutan, India or Uzbekistan. But to use the GINI the way Mr. Maduro used it in his commentary (“Venezuela has consistently reduced inequality”) is to misrepresent it as an indicator of social progress. Unless the economy as a whole creates wealth (measured by proxy with GNI/pC), this coefficient is meaningless.

Claims of poverty reduction solely by chavista policies are also dubious at best.  Poverty and indigence have decreased in Venezuela, but ceteres paribus, likely it would have been the case regardless. Chile and Colombia, countries with similar societies, reduced poverty in the same magnitude if not greater than that of Venezuela, while not using anything close to the Chávez model. According to the World Bank between 2005 and 2011 poverty declined in Venezuela by 22.16%, while in Colombia and Chile it declined by 31.14% and 20.88% respectively. 

Indicators such as literacy and infant mortality (according to UNESCO) have had positive trends over more than forty years and, during chavismo, these trends continued. Education from elementary to graduate has always been free, as a constitutional right throughout the 20^th century and before that by presidential decree promulgated by president Antonio Guzmán Blanco on June 27, 1870. Health care as a universal right has always existed in Venezuela and all governments have attempted to provide it in the past. These are not chavista achievements or ideals, as Maduro claims.

Reasserting policies to entrench chavismo, the Minister for Education, Héctor Rodríguez, recently said “it’s not as if we’re here to raise people out of poverty and have them become middle class squalids.” Squalid is the routine derisory term used by the government to describe the opposition. This statement was made while announcing mandatory rules for teaching Chávez-socialism, starting from Pre-K, in all schools, public, private or parochial. A continuous history rewrite.


Legitimacy of the Government and the Protests


“Since 1998, the movement founded by Hugo Chávez has won more than a dozen presidential, parliamentary and local elections through an electoral process that former American President Jimmy Carter has called ‘the best in the world.’ Recently, the United Socialist Party (USP) received an overwhelming mandate in mayoral elections in December 2013, winning 255 out of 337 municipalities.”  Thus spake Maduro in the New York Times.

This statement has several problems. The USP in fact won 240 municipalities. The other 15 Maduro claims are from splinters from that unity, including so called “true chavistas” that reject him. Overall in those elections, the USP lost 23 municipalities to the non-leftist opposition. This opposition now holds 75 municipalities, including all major cities in the country. The Maduro regime has responded by curtailing access to federal services and depriving legally entitled funds to opposition municipalities; in the same way it has done to states held by opposition governors.

But the use of former President Carter to defend elections held in Venezuela is most egregious and upsetting. Maduro refers to a Carter speech from September 2012, yet fails to mention that it was regarding the technology of the balloting system. The article he links to is about the fully automated touch-screen voting system, developed in Venezuela, which uses thumbprint recognition technology and prints receipts to confirm voters’ choices.

Maduro fails to mention the Carter Center for Democracy findings on the 2012 and 2013 presidential elections summarized as: “There is not agreement, however, about the quality of the voting conditions and whether every registered voter is able to vote one time, and only one time. In addition, the report finds a series of inequities in campaign conditions in terms of both access to financial resources and access to the media, which diminish the competitiveness of elections, particularly in a legal framework that permits indefinite reelection of public officials.”

It is noteworthy that in 2003 a drive to recall then president Chávez was sponsored by the opposition. Over three million signatures were gathered. Hugo Chávez announced in February 2004 that the list of names had been seized by the government. The list was published on-line and, in effect, became an enemies list with many signatories fired from their jobs, expelled from their schools and generally persecuted in an electoral intimidation tactic by the regime to fight the recall referendum later that year.  To this day, intimidation continues.

In April of 2013 the special election called on account of Chávez’s death resulted in the election of Nicolas Maduro, his hand picked successor. The official results were 50.61% to 49.12%, a difference of close to 230,000 votes over opposition leader Henrique Capriles. Despite calls by the opposition for a full recount and requests by UNASUR and the OAS for the same, the National Electoral Council, stacked by government loyalists, did a selective sampling audit and certified the results. The opposition has never conceded the legitimacy of this election, only acknowledged the de facto regime. In light of the Carter Center report regarding the abusive use of incumbency and media by the government and the continued intimidation of the electorate, these results at the very least are suspect, reflect a souring of chavismo among the population, and indicate massive opposition to the regime.

The legitimacy of the incumbent Maduro’s ascension—notwithstanding birther claims by the opposition—is constitutionally questionable.  Article 229 prohibits the vice president or any governor from being elected president.  Henrique Capriles resigned as Governor of Miranda state on June 6, 2012 to run against Chávez to whom he lost in October. Capriles was reelected governor in December 2012 and subsequently ran against Vice President Maduro upon Chávez’s death. No record of Capriles’ resignation for this election is available but that does not give Maduro a free pass. Any waiver to either candidate would contravene the constitution.

On the other hand the protests on the streets are constitutionally protected not only by guarantees of freedom of speech and assembly. Article 350 recognizes the right of “the people of Venezuela… to disavow any regime, law or authority that goes against democratic values, principles and guarantees, or that infringes human rights.”

Besides the undermining of democratic values and principles described above, over the last two months there have been arrests of opposition leaders, divestiture of elected officials and at least 81 documented human rights violations. There is continued harassment to opposition newspapers through millionaire lawsuits and withholding of foreign currency to buy paper, and intimidation and outright closures of media in general, including CNN and the regional news channel NTN24.


An Illusion of Democracy

What began as a student protest against crime in the streets has become a festering unrest.  It is hard to gauge the scale of the protest because the government suppresses information, while the opposition magnifies and publicizes any incident. But by calling the recent round of exploratory meetings to create “dialogue” roundtables the government tacitly acknowledges there is a political crisis.

This call for dialogue is a savvy political move by Maduro to splinter the opposition, trick an international audience into believing in a mirage of conciliatory moves, and attempt to create a puppet opposition for an illusion of democracy. In 2002, after the failed coup against Chávez, similar talks were held and promises of tolerance made. Those promises were all broken by the regime. Signatories of that accord include the current president. The record is not good, but internationally talk of sanctions has been suspended while the “dialogue” unfolds. Dialogue talks--live on TV-- that began with Maduro asserting: “I am not here to negotiate or make any deals”.

Just because a regime holds elections it does not mean it is a functioning democracy. Otherwise places such as North Korea, Cuba, Syria, Saddam’s Iraq and Mubarak’s Egypt would be considered showcases of democracy with reportedly massive happy voter turnout. As of Jan. 2014 Venezuela was ranked 133^rd out of 150 countries in the World Democracy Profile by Worldaudit.org., labeled a “hybrid regime” (ranks below “flawed democracy”) by the Economist Intelligence Unit, and ranked 121 out of 128 in the BTI (Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Transformation Index) measure of democracy and freedom.



National Assembly Member Maria Corina Machado
leaves a rally attacked by tear gas.

Symptoms of lack of democracy include:jailing opponents, suppressing protests, repressive militias, media control,and a rigged electoral process. In a cynical turn of events on the same day President Maduro’s essay “Venezuela: A Call for Peace” was published,opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was being tear gassed in a public rally and divested of her congressional seat. Venezuela is not a “participatory” democracy. At best it can be called a Totalitarian Democracy.

The situation in Venezuela has parallels to Iran 2009. At that time, after a contested election, images of popular protests and counter repression by government militias and hit squads filled TV screens and news outlets.Social media was awash with feeds of the protest. The death of Neda Agha-Soltan seared many an eye and there was a belief that change would come out of the sacrifice and pain of so many youths.
To this day Iran, a staunch Venezuela ally, remains under a totalitarian regime that keeps the peace with an iron fist.

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Background and references:

Leopoldo López: WikiLeaks – LL goes to the Barrios to Gather Political Support: http://www.cablegatesearch.net/cable.php?id=09CARACAS1330&q=leopoldo-lopez
LL in Popular Barrio Forum: http://globovision.com/articulo/redes-populares-de-unt-debatieron-la-reforma-en-el-cementerio-2

Henrique Capriles
HC has Sex with Gorillas: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/venezuela-president-pushes-back-using-bellicose-words-and-brute-force/2014/03/18/55357a74-aecf-11e3-b8b3-44b1d1cd4c1f_story.html
HC Leads a Homosexual Prostitution Ring: http://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia-maduro-acusa-capriles-ser-complice-red-prostitucion-homosexual-20130815094350.html

Maria Corina Machado
MCM is an Empty Doll:  http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2013/09/06/en-la-pagina-de-an-llaman-a-maria-corina-machado-la-muneca-hueca-de-la-burguesia-imagen/
MCM Needs to Keep Her Place: http://caracaschronicles.com/2014/04/01/political-rape/
MCM is not Smart, Needs Help: http://www.aporrealos.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=799773&sid=8f2b3eab6c3f893f033f99c5aa718be9
MCM is Pitiful: http://www.aporrea.org/oposicion/a186460.html

Illegal Dollars
New Law makes it Illegal to Buy/Sell Dollars as Commodities: http://www.correodelorinoco.gob.ve/tema-dia/ley-contra-ilicitos-cambiarios-evitara-que-se-trate-al-dolar-como-mercancia/
History of Foreign CurrencyExchange Regulations: http://www.monografias.com/trabajos13/monodef/monodef.shtml
Failed Attempts to Curtail Black Market Dollars: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/02/27/how-a-sensible-economic-policy-might-have-sparked-venezuelas-protests/
Arbitrage and the Bolivar: https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-law-of-unintended-consequences-sitme-and-venezuelas-currency-market/
Currency Inflation: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-25/venezuela-s-credit-rating-cut-by-fitch-on-inflation-currency.html
History of Bolivar devaluations: http://www.monedasdevenezuela.net/articulos/cronologia-de-la-devaluacion-del-bolivar-venezolano/
Historic Value/Black Market Rates of the Bolivar: http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Cotizaci%C3%B3n_hist%C3%B3rica_del_bol%C3%ADvar_venezolano
Economic Snapshot Venezuela 2013: http://www.slideshare.net/miguelangelsantos/perspectivas-econmicas-de-venezuela-2013

Income and Income Distribution (GINI)
World Bank Data, Venezuela: http://data.worldbank.org/country/venezuela-rb
World Bank Data, Chile: http://data.worldbank.org/country/chile
World Bank Data, Colombia: http://data.worldbank.org/country/colombia
GINI Index, World: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2172.html
Our Goal is not to Make Squalids out of the Poor: http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140225/rodriguez-no-vamos-a-sacarlos-de-la-pobreza-para-que-se-vuelvan-escual

Oil/Oil Prices
PDVSA Financial Statements: http://www.pdvsa.com/index.php?tpl=interface.sp/design/biblioteca/readdoc.tpl.html&newsid_obj_id=10919&newsid_temas=111
Historical Price of Oil, in Constant Dollars: http://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/historical_oil_prices_table.asp

Industrial and Farming Collapse
Despite Official Numbers, Shortages Increase: http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140101/shortage-prevailed-despite-increased-agriculture-production-in-venezue
Venezuela Economy in Numbers:http://www.indexmundi.com/venezuela/economy_profile.html
Structural Productivity Problems: http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/07/20/venezuelas_productivity_problem

Elections
Electoral results, Municipal Elections 2013: http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_municipales_de_Venezuela_de_2013
Official electoral results, Municipal and Presidential Elections 2013: http://www.eleccionesvenezuela.com/resultados-elecciones-venezuela.php
http://www.cne.gob.ve/resultado_presidencial_2013/r/1/reg_000000.html
Concentration and influence - undermining opposition districts; http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=13&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CDMQFjACOAo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.scielo.cl%2Fpdf%2Frevcipol%2Fv30n1%2Fart03.pdf&ei=eqBQU4XXHuH50gGStYGgBg&usg=AFQjCNFDBQAufFbiw933bnpgH6Nx8Aq_WQ
Municipal results 2013: http://www.infobae.com/2013/12/08/1529456-elecciones-venezuela-maduro-festeja-el-interior-pero-pierde-las-capitales
Carter Center for Democracy Report on Venezuela: https://www.cartercenter.org/news/pr/venezuela-070313.html
Carter speech in Atlanta: http://www.globalresearch.ca/former-us-president-carter-venezuelan-electoral-system-best-in-the-world/5305779
Human Rights Watch report on Chávez: http://www.hrw.org/reports/2008/venezuela0908/index.htm
Electoral enemies list by the Venezuela government (Human Rights Watch report) http://www.hrw.org/reports/2008/venezuela0908/2.htm#_Toc207173131

No Negotiation or Deals
The Implosion in the US’ Backyard: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/jackson-diehl-venezuela-the-uprising-no-one-is-noticing/2014/03/03/19ab5828-9fc7-11e3-b8d8-94577ff66b28_story.html
The Revolution is Non-Negotiable: http://www.latercera.com/noticia/mundo/2014/04/678-573208-9-maduro-asegura-que-no-habra-negociacion-o-pactos-en-dialogo-con-oposicion.shtml
http://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2014/04/10/dialogovenezuela/comment-page-1/

Shutting Down the Opposition
Close the Radios: http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/08/01/venezuela-media-idUSN0146551720090801
Control Print Media: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2013/09/12/Venezuelas-press-faces-closures-as-newsprint-runs-out/UPI-96431379024223/
Not a Democracy: http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2013/venezuela#.U1CrF6JYOSo

Carlos J. Rangel
The Failures of Chavismo: https://www.facebook.com/notes/carlos-j-rangel/with-a-heavy-heart-facing-the-failures-of-chavismo/10153925730160417
The Social Explosion In Venezuela: https://www.facebook.com/notes/carlos-j-rangel/the-social-explosion-in-venezuela/10153826072310417
Blogspot – On Iran 2009: http://carlosjrangel.blogspot.com/2009/09/selected-essays-on-iran-election.html
Campaign Journal 2008: http://books.google.com/books?id=MokNZ2AiVO0C&printsec=frontcover&dq=campaign+journal+2008&cd=1#v=onepage&q&f=false

ACCESS AND CONTROL

There is no argument to be made based on the Commerce Clause of the Constitution or otherwise that can forbid anyone from keeping a tiger as a pet in their home.  Besides common sense reasons, regulatory agencies, from federal to local, affect an individual's ability to establish at his home in any community such a potentially dangerous situation.  However, if that individual complies with all regulations, then he can keep a tiger as a pet in his backyard.  Perhaps he is your neighbor.  That compliance still defies common sense.

Memorial by art teacher Eric Mueller.

The allegorical tiger at home is brought to mind by the tragic events in Newtown, Connecticut.  The gun laws in Connecticut are strict.  The weapons were legal in a state and community that makes sure those kind of things are well regulated.  Twenty children, ages 5 to 7, were shot three to seven times each by perfectly legal guns and perfectly legal bullets.  Over one hundred rounds.  It defies common sense in a civilized society.

What are the alternative interpretations of the Second Amendment that can help us all to combat this increasingly maddening problem of mass shootings?  How to reconcile tradition, interests and legal rights of gun ownership with the potential unleashing of these weapons of mass murder upon the innocent?

The Second Amendment reads:

"A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of people to bear arms shall not be infringed." 

Twenty seven words of contention over the years, written in the late eighteenth century, at a time when "reload" was quite a task. And, significantly, when there was no such thing as a standing army and the defense of the state was relied upon by a "well regulated militia."

The parsing of those twenty seven words by scholars and lawyers is what has brought upon us the situation that we have today of free roaming bullets looking for targets and publicity. Some of these agents of obfuscation argue that the first part of the clause (before the second comma) is what they call "prefatory", in essence a generic and meaningless introduction to the second part (the so called operative clause) which, they argue, gives free reign to the possession of any type of weapons. Justice Scalia includes Rocket Propelled Grenades among the weapons that should be available to the general public under the right to "bear arms" because "they can be hand held." He does put a limit on cannons ("probably not" allowed are his actual words on cannons).

Just how nonsensical is this line of thinking? Perhaps those who actually wrote the Constitution should have a say on this. Alexander Hamilton did in fact think that the prefatory clause was relevant and writes in The Federalist 29:

"If a well regulated militia be the most natural defence of a free country, it ought certainly to be under the regulation and at the disposal of that body which is constituted the guardian of the national security...confiding the regulation of the militia to the direction of the national authority... (and) reserving to the states... the authority of training the militia."

Sounds like he was talking about the National Guard, not individualistic gun collectors. In fact, Justice Stevens in his dissent to the majority opinion that struck down an ill framed gun restriction law in Washington, DC (Heller vs. District of Columbia) makes a point on individual gun ownership and the Constitutional framers' intention:

"The Amendment's text does justify a different limitation: the 'right to bear arms' protects only a right to possess and use firearms in connection with service in a state organized militia. Had the Framers wished to expand the meaning of the phrase 'bear arms' to encompass civilian possession and use, they could have done so by the addition of phrases such as 'the defense of themselves'."

Such interpretation is logical and includes in its reasoning both the so called prefatory and operative clauses of the amendment. The dissent containing this reasoning was joined by three other Justices.

So, what to do?

There is a time for grieving and there is a time for action. We pray for the victims and sympathize with the survivors. It is what makes us human. But the best way to give meaning to the senseless tragedies of Newton, Aurora, Portland, Tucson, Virginia Tech, Columbine and so many others is not to forget and do something about it. I am contacting my congressman as should all civilized citizens that wish to live in a society in which mass gun violence decreases every year, not increases.

What options exist?  The first is obvious: ban private possession of weapons specifically designed for maximum firepower in combat.  Make it illegal to own such weapons, not even grandfathered in.  Other options are more complicated but doable.  How about limiting the number of weapons in a single dwelling?  New businesses could crop out of that one: Gun storage, probably at shooting ranges, or at hunting or gun collector clubs.  Just don't keep more than one weapon at a time in a home.  And what about bullets?  How many bullets should be kept at home at any one time?  How about no more than ten, or six?  Let me put it this way--you have to sign away every time you buy Sudafed or Claritin so the authorities are sure you do not have a meth lab at home.  Why can't the number of bullets in a home be regulated?

The legal pretense of the "operative" clause of the second amendment, as lobbied to death by an industry that just wants to expand its markets limitlessly, must be debunked.  There will always be criminals.  There will always be deranged individuals craving attention.  We just do not have to make it so easy for these anti-socials to legally access weapons of mass murder.  

Carlos J. Rangel, December 2012

FOR OTHER WRITINGS ON GUN CONTROL BY CJ RANGEL GO TO: BESEIGED BY GUN VIOLENCE