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Mostrando las entradas con la etiqueta Maria Corina Machado. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando las entradas con la etiqueta Maria Corina Machado. Mostrar todas las entradas

domingo, 4 de agosto de 2024

EL LEGADO

La elección del 28 de julio del 2024 eliminó toda posibilidad de credibilidad democrática del PSUV. Cualquier miembro del partido que pensaba que podía coexistir con la facción elitista del partido y con la oposición democrática para propagar los ideales sociales de Chávez dentro de un sistema pluralista, debe reconocer en este momento que esa posibilidad es nula. Maduro es un dictador sanguinario que hará todo lo que considere necesario para mantenerse en el poder, desde un descarado y obvio fraude electoral y la detención arbitraria de oponentes y sus seguidores, hasta el uso de mercenarios armados para la represión asesina de la protesta cívica. Ya no es solamente que “el mal chavista” está en el poder, cosa que pudiera solucionarse dentro de un sistema democrático, sino que “el verdadero chavista” se aferra al poder, demostrando la estirpe original de Hugo Chávez como el antidemócrata primigenio, conspirando contra la democracia venezolana desde 1983 bajo el Samán de Güere. Este verdadero legado de Hugo Chávez destruye cualquier capacidad que la elite del PSUV pueda tener convivencia en un sistema democrático. Todo defensor de la constitución y la democracia observando las acciones de Maduro desde ese domingo, sabe lo que esta sucediendo: la usurpación del poder por un autócrata que ignora descaradamente la soberanía popular. El legado actual de Maduro es la destrucción del PSUV como participante creíble en un sistema democrático, la destrucción del partido como tal. Cualquier miembro del partido con anhelo de convivencia democrática saldrá del mismo, "por las buenas o por las malas" por no tener futuro en el mismo.

La campaña de la oposición contra el gobierno ideada hace alrededor de dos años tuvo un objetivo claro: la unificación y reconciliación del país. Este objetivo busca aliviar el gran malestar de fondo que cansa y mantiene al país en una depresión emocional (y debilidad económica) desde hace 10 años al menos, y originado por las prácticas implementadas por el chavismo durante los 12 años anteriores. Este objetivo de campaña se instrumenta en la unificación de la oposición y el mensaje de reunificación familiar, que incluye reunificar a los que se fueron a buscar fortuna a otras tierras con su familia que se quedó, y reunificar a los que fueron separados por la guerra psicológica civil divisionista del chavismo, enfrentando hermano contra hermano, padres contra hijos, y vecino contra vecino en su misma patria.  Esta reunificación y reconciliación busca hacer al país en uno fuerte y unido contra aquellos que pretenden dividirlo y expoliarlo para su propio provecho mediante execrable corrupción adminstrativa o condenable corrupción criminal. Se dice fácil, pero tiene práctica difícil: en la unión está la fuerza. Es mucho más fácil dividir y destruir -la táctica del PSUV para lograr y mantenerse en el poder- que unir y construir, el mensaje de la oposición liderada por Maria Corina Machado.

La farsa democrática del régimen se basa sobre un fraude electoral que cree que dará legitimidad a su pretensión de mantenerse en el poder. El régimen pretende crear una ilusión de democracia mediante unos resultados evidentemente fraudulentos, y proclama a cuatro vientos que celebrar elecciones demuestra que son demócratas. Pero al igual que su pretensión de legitimidad democrática por el voto nos demuestra su irrespeto a la soberanía popular, sus acciones contra los otros factores que conforman la democracia revelan su talante antidemocrático: la represión de la voz de protesta pacífica, el irrespeto a la ley por igual para todos, y la carencia del debido proceso, incluso contraviniendo acuerdos internacionales suscritos.  La falta de libertad de asamblea, libertad de expresión, igualdad ante la ley y apego a la misma son evidente señal de régimen autoritario. En esto, Maduro ha demostrado ser peor que Pinochet, y fiel seguidor de los sanguinarios autócratas que usurparon la revolución cubana.

La destrucción de la credibilidad democrática del PSUV recae directamente sobre el triunvirato de Nicolás Maduro, Diosdado Cabello y Jorge Rodríguez.  Cada uno tiene sus razones propias para aferrarse al poder, pero su complicidad antidemocrática y anticonstitucional es común. Los defensores de la democracia y los defensores de la constitución tienen ahora un objetivo común: la verdadera restauración de la democracia y la reconstrucción del país apegados a las leyes y las normas que harán a este un país unido y fuerte. Los gruñidos, coletazos y zarpazos de bestia acorralada son peligrosos y poderosos, pero la verdad, la voluntad y la persistencia de la ciudadanía venezolana prevalecerá sin duda. La oposición alzó su voz y voluntad fuerte contra el régimen, muchos individuos, instituciones y naciones la acompañarán para y hasta derrocar la satrapía y regresar a la verdadera paz y prosperidad que el país merece y anhela, rechazando el legado antidemocrático de la empresa Hugo Chávez Frías & Sucesores.

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Carlos J. Rangel
twitter: @CarlosJRangel1
threads: cjrangel712

Libros de Carlos J. Rangel:



 


miércoles, 23 de noviembre de 2016

Un Proyecto de Libro - La Venezuela Imposible.


La Venezuela Imposible: Introducción


Quien hubiese dicho en vana ilusión que la democracia es la forma natural de gobernar los pueblos está equivocado. La historia contradice esa afirmación. En seis mil años de historia civilizada, la democracia apenas tiene segundos efímeros de existencia. Grandes obras, grandes monumentos, grandes aportes a la civilización fueron hechos por, bajo y en nombre de tiranos que sometían a sus pueblos, algunos de manera benevolente, la mayoría de manera represiva, combinando en diversas ponderaciones el poder económico, militar y religioso en una figura o élite autocrática.

El experimento democrático moderno iniciado a mediados del S. XVIII tiene su mejor ejemplo contemporáneo en Los Estados Unidos, cuyo documento originario fundamental es su Declaración de Independencia de 1776. Este documento es un argumento a favor de la representatividad, en contra del régimen autoritario, e incluye famosamente el enunciado de los “derechos inalienables y autoevidentes de todo ser humano": vida, libertad y procura de felicidad. La revolución francesa poco después, en 1789, tiene una variación sutil pero importante sobre los derechos humanos bajo el lema, “libertad, igualdad, fraternidad”. Son enfoques distintos que conducirán por distintos caminos el desarrollo político de las naciones.

No tan casualmente, este hervidero de ideas políticas y revolucionarias ocurre en medio de un período que incluye la publicación de ese tomo que cambió fundamentalmente la manera de pensar acerca de la economía: La Riqueza de las Naciones, de Adam Smith, publicado en 1776. Dos ideas claves surgen de este libro: la riqueza se crea mediante la transacción económica, y el ser humano en procura de su interés propio genera bienestar social. La riqueza de las naciones antes de este libro se calculaba de manera mercantilista: cuánto oro, piedras preciosas o bienes acumulados tenía un país. A partir de ese libro se va a medir la riqueza por la suma del número de transacciones económicas: lo que hoy llamamos el Producto Nacional Bruto. La segunda idea propone que la individualidad, el interés propio no es una condición antisocial, de huraños, de egoístas. Propone este concepto despojarse del sentido comunal colectivo como medio para favorecer el bienestar social. Postula que si cada quien mejora su propia condición por su propio esfuerzo, la comunidad en general mejora. Una idea radical contraria al paternalismo de estado benevolente o totalitario prevaleciente en su época.

En 1859 ocurre otro golpe de timón al pensamiento mundial, con un tomo que cambió en sus bases la manera de pensar acerca del universo: El Origen de las Especies. Este tomo es una afrenta directa a la concepción de un mundo creado por origen divino de manera perfecta y estática.  La intelligentsia, ya escéptica del mandato divino de sus dirigentes, tiene nuevas municiones para argumentar acerca del desarrollo político de la sociedad. Cambio y extinción son naturales y comunes en el universo, ergo existe la posibilidad de una mejor sociedad. La pregunta es, ¿cómo llegar a ella? Once años antes, ya se había publicado un panfleto sugiriendo una respuesta: El Manifiesto Comunista. Según este documento, la sociedad avanza de manera inexorable desde un estado pre-capitalista, al capitalista, socialista y finalmente al comunista.

Las utopías sociales descritas en el Manifiesto Comunista...



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ESTE ENSAYO Y OTROS ESTÁN DISPONIBLES EN SU TOTALIDAD EN
LA VENEZUELA IMPOSIBLE: 

jueves, 1 de octubre de 2015

Promesas Cumplidas


Chávez cumplió su promesa de conducir al país hacia un nuevo destino, una nueva sociedad la cual, en su mente, comparaba con un mar de felicidad.  Desde un primer momento visualizaba al modelo cubano como el modelo a seguir y nunca lo negó. Quienes negaron que el proponía esa vía fueron un gran número de venezolanos, empezando por los medios de comunicación y los políticos que se dejaron seducir por el discurso y los ojos de Chávez.

Poco después del intento de golpe de estado el 4 de febrero de 1992 por Chávez contra el presidente Carlos Andrés Pérez, el mundo político respondía de la siguente manera: 
2 de Abril 1992: La Marcha del Silencio exige la “libertad de los insurgentes y la renuncia de Pérez.” La marcha fue convocada a pesar de estar las garantías suspendidas a raíz de la intentona golpista.
Oswaldo Álvarez Paz (27 de Abril, 1992): “No tengo dudas en cuanto a la rectitud de propósitos que los animó a la aventura del 4-F.”
Claudio Fermín (octubre 1992): hay que considerar “la posibilidad de decretar una amnistía para los militares y encapuchados” del golpe.
Luis Herrera Campíns (2 de noviembre 1992): el expresidente “considera posible que los rebeldes de febrero puedan aportar ideas para salir de la crisis, por lo que reta al Presidente Pérez a ponerlos en libertad y permitir que busquen sus votos en la calle”.

Solo pasarán veinticinco días de esas declaraciones de Herrera Campíns cuando...


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ESTE ENSAYO Y OTROS ESTÁN DISPONIBLES EN SU TOTALIDAD EN
LA VENEZUELA IMPOSIBLE: 



sábado, 12 de septiembre de 2015

Vida y Muerte de un País

El luto duele y perdura. Cuando un ser querido se va siempre queda la huella, profunda y viva, lista para aflorar en el momento menos esperado y herirnos nuevamente con el dolor de su partida. En el esquema clásico de la psicóloga Elisabeth Kübler-Ross encontramos una interpretación que nos permite aclarar los sentimientos que tenemos muchos venezolanos sobre la triste situación que se vive en nuestra patria. Las fases de luto y muerte que ella cataloga son: Negación, enojo, negociación, depresión y aceptación. Aceptación del resultado final.

Aun cuando Kübler-Ross establece que no necesariamente estas etapas o fases siguen un orden preestablecido, y a veces se repiten, el consenso general es que esa es la secuencia en la que el luto por un ser querido o la aceptación de su destino de un desahuciado ocurre. Veamos cómo aplica en Venezuela.

En una primera instancia, en el período 1992 a 1998...





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ESTE ENSAYO Y OTROS ESTÁN DISPONIBLES EN SU TOTALIDAD EN
LA VENEZUELA IMPOSIBLE: 

sábado, 6 de junio de 2015

Cuando las Mayorías Pierden.

To read this essay in English click here.

La fecha no está anunciada aún, pero aparte de la muy verdadera posibilidad de fraude, hay razones estructurales por las cuales hay gran probabilidad de que el chavismo mantenga el control de la Asamblea Nacional en las elecciones venideras. Datanálisis arroja que alrededor del ochenta por ciento del universo votante en Venezuela se opone al gobierno de Nicolás Maduro. Esto haría pensar que las elecciones parlamentarias serán arrasadas por la oposición. Sin embargo, estar contra Maduro no es necesariamente ser antichavista.   Los opositores al chavismo, sumados a los opositores de Maduro suman gran mayoría pero no necesariamente eso hará que la Asamblea Nacional electa este año sea antichavista.

El Universo electoral se puede dividir en cuatro grandes grupos: Chavistas pro-maduro, Chavistas anti-maduro, Antichavistas pro-MUD, y Antichavistas anti-MUD. Los grupos chavistas...




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ESTE ENSAYO Y OTROS ESTÁN DISPONIBLES EN SU TOTALIDAD EN
LA VENEZUELA IMPOSIBLE: 

miércoles, 11 de marzo de 2015

La Locura del Liderazgo

To read this essay in English, click here.

El del Sur.

Los Estados Unidos fueron atacados el lunes 24 de noviembre del 2014. El mayor ataque cibernético que se haya perpetrado hasta la fecha puso de rodillas a una gran corporación y afectó a miles de personas. El ataque a Sony se ha determinado con 99% de certeza que se originó en Corea del Norte, su líder motivado por la percepción de haber sido atacado primero  por unos jóvenes cineastas comediantes de Hollywood con insultos a su arrogancia y pomposidad. Hasta esas alturas, las trágicas y caricaturescas payasadas de Kim Jung-Un, el "Líder Supremo", habían sido ignoradas en su mayoría por el pueblo estadounidense. Aun cuando el impacto directo para Sony parece moderado en contexto (se estima en alrededor de 15 millones de dólares), el impacto a compañías y agencias obligadas a incrementar su seguridad cibernética, el impacto personal a personas asociadas pero no parte directa de Sony, y el trauma psíquico sobre toda la ciudadanía norte-americana, no es cuantificable. Todo porque un desatado solitario se enojó con los EE. UU.
La locura del liderazgo no es exclusiva a tierras del Lejano Oriente. Enfrentando pobreza masiva, hambre, y un deterioro en calidad de vida que va desde la salud hasta la seguridad personal, el gobierno de Nicolás Maduro en Venezuela ha reiterado el lema populista favorito: la culpa es de ‘LOS OTROS’. Sean internos (burguesitos), externos (el Imperio) y/o en combinación conspirativa. Sin embargo, la falta de soluciones verdaderas para los problemas cada día más numerosos que sufre el país está resultando en un aumento desenfrenado de la autocracia represiva en intentos fallidos de control, y puede conducir a acciones virulentas e irracionales en contra de los Estados Unidos.

El Sr. Maduro es un personaje pintoresco. Persiguiendo la sombra de su carismático y más pintoresco mentor, el fallecido Hugo Chávez, Maduro no da la talla ante el ídolo muerto. Y no porque no lo haya intentado. En estilo de dinastía electoral se autocalifica “Hijo de Chávez”; declara que el espíritu de Chávez le habla en forma de pajarito; toca cuatro durante mítines; y en conferencias de prensa y cadenas televisivas imita el estilo paternalista y condescendiente de los discursos de El Difunto.
Sin embargo, la visión nostálgica de los chavistas siempre verá a Maduro como inadecuado en comparación: no se puede competir con El Muerto. El chavismo...


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ESTE ENSAYO Y OTROS ESTÁN DISPONIBLES EN SU TOTALIDAD EN
LA VENEZUELA IMPOSIBLE: 

viernes, 6 de marzo de 2015

The Madness of Leadership.


The One South of Us.

On Monday November 24th 2014, the US was attacked.  The largest ever cyberattack to date brought a major corporation to its knees and affected the lives of thousands of people.  The Sony hack has been determined with 99% certainty to have come from North Korea, motivated by a perceived attack on its arrogance and self-importance by some comedy filmmakers in Hollywood.  Up to then, the tragic cartoonish buffoonery of the Supreme Leader, Kim Jung-Un, had been dismissed in America as innocuous for the most part.  While the direct financial impact on Sony is reported at $15M, the overall impact on all corporations and agencies now boosting cyber-security, the personal impact on people associated but not part of Sony, and the gut impact on the American psyche is unquantifiable. All because one rogue person got mad at the US.

The madness of leadership is not singular to faraway lands.  Faced with mass poverty, starvation and deteriorating standards of living from health to personal safety, the government of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela has doubled down on the populist solution of choice, blame the OTHERS: internal (petty bourgeois), external (the Empire) or/and a combination of both conspiring.  The lack of real solutions to the country's increasing problems, however has led to increased autocratic measures and can lead to even more irrational vitriol and actions targeting the US.
Mr. Maduro is a colorful character. Chasing the shadow of his more charismatic and even more colorful mentor, the late Hugo Chávez, he cannot live up to the idolized vision of a dead leader. He has tried: in dynastic, electoral mode, he called himself "The Son of Chávez"; he claims that the spirit of Chávez talks to him in the form of a little bird; he plays the Cuatro (a variation of the ukulele) during rallies; he mimics the affected paternalistic and condescending speech patterns of the late Chávez in press conferences and intervened TV programming (cadenas).
 
The nostalgic view of the Chavistas will always render Maduro as inadequate. Chavismo fooled a great majority of people some of the time and still some has some fooled all of the time (for more on this read my previous essay-- With a Heavy Heart: Facing the Failures of Chavismo). But the intractable problems of the economy and society that face Maduro now are direct consequence of Chavismo.  The festive party with no realistic vision of tomorrow that Chávez led, buoyed by high priced oil used to buy and curry favors from fair weather friends, is over. Now it is time to pay the piper.

Caudillismo on Steroids.

The leader cult runs deep in Venezuela. From the time of Simon Bolivar, and with roots in Spanish King authority, strong leaders have been venerated in a quasi religious manner, adding them to the Santeria pantheon that underlies popular beliefs.  Santeria is a mixture of Afro-Caribbean, American (Venezuelan) Indian and Christian rituals with an Earth Goddess named Maria Leonza at its center. It is said that most if not all Venezuelan presidents have had links of one sort or another to this undercurrent culture.  Not by coincidence, a similar cult exists in Cuba where Maria Leonza is substituted by their own Sea-Earth Goddess, Yemayá.
This idolatry of the leader, of course, is not a Venezuela exclusive and North Korea once again comes to mind, particularly in its close association with religious practice.  While nominally a secular atheist state, devotion to the Supreme Leader has replaced traditional organized religion.  This devotion has a name, Juche, centered on the cult of the Kim dynasty. According to Juche teachings, life after death exists only if the society that defined that life is continued. The Juche calendar begins with patriarch Kim Il-Sung's birth in 1912.
The cozy relationship begun with Chávez between North Korea and Venezuela deepened under Maduro, with the announcement in October 2013 of a reopening of the North Korean Embassy in Caracas and a cooperation agreement between the legislative chambers. In typical flamboyant rhetoric of insecure autocratic regimes, the newly appointed NK ambassador to Venezuela, Jon Yong-Jin, is reported to have said that "if the US government dared to engage in a military attack on Venezuela, North Korea would not think twice before joining the fight against the empire". (Aporrea)
Not much has been heard from Ambassador Jon since his recall to North Korea after his brother in law Jang Sung-Taek, who was also Kim Jong-Un's uncle, was executed by the Supreme Leader by feeding him to angry dogs in December 2013. Kim was purging his government of enemies out to get him.
Paranoia, imagined plots and savage repression come with the unbridled actions of the "supreme" be it Leader or Commander (as in the case of Chávez). Since his ascension to power in 2013, Maduro has claimed to have uncovered dozens of coup and anti government conspiracies. Usually when public opinion of the government needs a boost. Conspirators in his little red book have included journalists, store owners, former ambassadors, and student leaders. All, of course, aided and abetted by the US and their cadre of gringo-loving local business men. In his latest uncovered counterrevolutionary plot, he arrested four missionaries from North Dakota plotting to undermine the health system of the country. A few months ago it was the turn of the head of a major hospital alerting to possible pandemics due to the shortages of health supplies of all sorts.
Feverish hatred and paranoia can lead to bad decisions and consequences for all parties.  The repressive nature of the Venezuelan regime is reaching new heights. From the mundane, such as HR memos in state owned enterprises urging fellow workers to denounce anyone they know traveling to the US, to the unabashed, such as arrests of high profile opposition leaders detained on trumped up charges and held indefinitely awaiting arraignment and trial. Other less prominent opponents from the working and student populations are routinely arrested and recorded as enemies of the state, to be harassed and black balled in employment and school under the watchful eye of Chavismo.  Read more here about Democracy under Chavismo.
Public protests are now, by government decree, (un)lawfully squashed with live ammo. In a recent incident a fourteen year old boy, Kluiverth Roa, huddled and scared behind a car after running away from the repressed protest march, was shot point blank in the head by a police officer in charge of stopping the protests. And those are the incidents that make the news. While that particular victim's family may get a modicum of redress, the population at large gets the message: repression is here to stay.
Kluiverth Roa, Murdered by a Shot to the Head

Survival Mode.

The shattered economy is evident in the streets, where shop owners big and small are constantly harassed while protected peddlers thrive in a corrupt black market of goods sold way over their regulated prices. Byzantine foreign exchange regulations and the collapse in oil revenues has led to scarcity of essential goods and foods in a country where local production has been all but squashed by Chavista zealotry. Hard to find products include sanitary napkins, toilet paper and, of course, medicines and medical supplies of all sorts.  The collapse of health care has forced many to increasingly rely on home medicines and witchcraft solutions.  The slogan "Socialist Fatherland or Death" used by Chavez rings so true now.

Army Captain Diosdado Cabello
The "Cartel de los Soles" (Cartel of the Suns, named for the insignias of Generals) --the military led narcotrafficking ring-- keeps a firm grip on the government and represses any possible military dissension. From its beginning, in association the Colombian narco-guerrilla FARC, top elements in the military establishment first protected and then appropriated the drug business in the region. Former Vice-President and now National Assembly Speaker, Capt. (act.) Diosdado Cabello was Chavez's liaison with the FARC and is now a leading figure in this cartel (For a reported chronology of the growth of Venezuela as a Military Drug State, follow the links at the end of this essay).

The social contract is a shambles by Chavez's own creations: the Social Missions and "Colectivos". These are groups of die hard Chavistas set up in neighborhoods to enforce Chavista rule. These groups in many cases have become gangs that terrorize their charges and fight each other. In a high profile case a leading and rising young Chavista star, Assembly Member Roberto Serra, was recently stabbed to death by members of his own bodyguards composed of Mission thugs in a rivalry dispute of some kind.


The colectivos have become a de-facto militia, armed, trained and supported institutionally, and called upon when needed to repress anti-government protests. But this dragon nurtured by the regime needs to be fed and Maduro has a hard time complying. The recent death of an outspoken colectivo leader, Jose Odreman, under a hail of police bullets, came shortly after he was denouncing Maduro's wavering to Chavista principles.

The ingredients for desperation moves are all there. Political intrigue, massive corruption and a repressed population make for a simmering cauldron that President Maduro is well aware of. He needs to cater to his core base of dyed-in-the-wool Chavistas that maintain the Panglossian virtues of socialist Chavista principles. This faction pulls him away from any possible compromise that could affect the unsustainable favor-purchasing economic policies that are at the core of Chavismo --and populism in general.

Given such conditions, distractions are in order.  Repeated ad-nauseam uncovered coup plots form the continuing saga of Maduro's tenure. He uses these supposed revelations to justify repressive moves towards the population and opposition leaders, and dramatically accuses "The Empire" of attempting to strike him down. His latest move, forcing the US Embassy to all but shut down with a skeleton crew of 17 accredited officers, issuing (laughable) travel bans to a who's who list in American politics and increasing travel restrictions for US citizens into Venezuela, follows a pattern of growing aggression towards the US which, despite it all, is Venezuela's still biggest trading partner and source of hard currency. 

After returning home empty handed from a beggar's tour of Venezuela's allies, China, Russia, Iran and the Arab world, Maduro in contradictory statements said "God will provide" while claiming success. He even announced an odd plan to help Qatar import foodstuffs from Venezuela --disregarding the fact that there is no home grown food in Venezuela. In his visit to Iran he reiterated the strong ties between both countries, ties that may weaken if the US succeeds in reestablishing diplomatic relations with that country. 

 The Cuba-US "apertura" further isolates Venezuela and Maduro, the face of Chavismo, faces a lonely future indeed. Maduro may not prevail but Chavismo, true to its Marxist-Leninist roots, will continue to crush opposition and not give an inch, regardless of its figurehead. Venezuela's closest remaining ally will be North Korea, sympathetic to Chavismo's struggle against the Empire, and a model to follow in socialist rule. Having a powerful common enemy, a shattered populace and similar messianic tendencies make these regimes find common ground to support each other; and possibly act in concert in accordance to the madness of their leadership.

 

Cartel de Los Soles: Venezuela's Government Protected Drug Cartel.

2015 - DEA and US Attorneys build their cases against high ranking government officials - The Wall Street Journal

2015 – National Assembly President and former Vice President, Capt. (Army, Act.) Diosdado Cabello: http://interamericansecuritywatch.com/diosdado-cabellos-head-of-security-defects-to-the-u-s-and-accuses-him-of-narcotrafficking/





2005  - Getting rid of the competition: http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/1279

All images copyright their respective owners.

 

domingo, 20 de abril de 2014

Venezuela: A Call for Democracy

 
A repeated misinformation screed by Venezuelan government officials is that opposition plotters want to overthrow the government, trash the constitution and return to the failed policies of the pre-Chávez past. This refrain is used in public appearances and pronouncements under the Goebbels theory that if repeated enough, enough people will believe it to be the truth. Facts, however, belie these statements. Despite blatant electoral distortions, the opposition has repeatedly participated in elections. Opposition leaders have recognized the failings of the political model that led to the unrest of the 90’s, and in most instances defend the social net created under Chávez. Some, like the imprisoned Leopoldo López, have done community organizing to improve conditions in poor neighborhoods, using the Chávez model. That is the positive Chávez legacy: recognition of the need to redress social and economic disparities.

Negative aspects of that legacy include the virulent sectarian discourse used to belittle and prevaricate about the opposition and any perceived enemies. Chávez’s famous smelling of the sulfur in the UN, referring to President GW Bush, is pittance compared to the epithets and lies used against domestic opponents. A new low is the constant homo-hateful innuendos used by Maduro during the presidential campaign and to this day against his rival Henrique Capriles, as well as blatant dismissive sexism against opposition assemblywoman Maria Corina Machado.

Mud slinging could be comically entertaining if the stakes were not so high, as pervasive sectarian speech is a threat to any democracy. Belittling the opposition, characterizing opponents as enemies, and the call to “Socialist Homeland or Death!” used to end public appearances has created a fractured society—and is probably behind the disregard for life reflected in the 70 murders a day in 2013. Hate speech comes in many forms but is always a creeping social cancer.

Polls reflect a majority of Venezuelans consider their nation to be in crisis. In a recent Op-ed in the NYT Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, sought to defend his government and policies with facts supporting his position (Venezuela: A Call for Peace). But many of those facts are either outright misrepresentations or panglossian distortions. His sound-bite essay needs a reply with long facts.

Per Capita National Income and the GINI Coefficient, Revisited.

Economic and social numbers are sometimes difficult to read and with propaganda masters behind them can be obfuscating. Despite information limitations,however, inferences can be made that contradict Maduro’s assertions of increased social welfare under chavismo.

On its face, Gross National Income per Capita (GNI/pC) in Venezuela has increased from a little over $4,000 in 2004 up to almost $12,500 in 2012. During this period, it should be noted, the price of oil increased nearly 90%. The Gross National Income, as calculated by the World Bank, quantifies the GDP in local currency converted to US$ and adjusted for inflation. Unfortunately, the official GNI/pC may not reflect realities on the Venezuelan kitchen table.

It is illegal since 2010 to inform or publicize or use any ForEx number that is not the official rate of exchange, i.e. 6.30 bolivars per dollar. Brokers went to jail for posting “parallel market” exchange rates, and at least eight websites doing the same have local access blocked while their authors remain anonymous to avoid prosecution.  Any official number, such as the GNI/pC can legally only be calculated using that official exchange rate. 


In 2010 the parallel (black) market rate—the rate at which many businesses were forced to operate due to the Byzantine and corrupt bureaucratic entanglement that the dollar allocation system has engendered—went from 6.30 to 9.14 bolivars per dollar at year’s end. That, on its face, would imply a devaluation of close to 45%. It is estimated that the government itself has been deficit financing by intervening in black market transactions, supplying about 20% of commercially needed dollars. To be fair, not all transactions are in black market dollars, but if only 30% (including government participation) of them are, as companies and individuals are forced to this market for their needs, the estimated devaluation for 2010 would have been around 14%.



estimated supply
Value (rate) in 2004 (Bs per US$)
Bs 1.92




Official Rate 2010
Bs 6.30
70% of demand
“Black” Rate end of 2010
Bs 9.14
30% of demand
Weighted Value 2010
Bs 7.15

“Black” Devaluation Jan-Dec 2010
45%

“Black” Devaluation 2004 to 2010
376%

Weighted Devaluation Jan-Dec 2010
14%




Official Rate 2012
Bs 6.30
70% of demand
“Black” Rate end of 2012
Bs 17.33
30% of demand
Weighted Value 2012
Bs 9.61

Weighted Devaluation 2010 to 2012
53%




Official Rate 2013
Bs 6.30
65% of demand
“Black” Rate end of 2013
Bs 63.70
15% of demand
SICAD I (Preferential allocation rate)
Bs 10.00
25% of demand
Weighted Value 2013
Bs 20.19

Weighted Devaluation 2012-2013
110%


The same calculation implies a devaluation of over 52% by 2012, as the black market rate shot up to Bs 17.33 per dollar. What this means is a brutal recessive adjustment in the real GNI/pC from US$10,140 in 2009 to $5,916 in 2012, a 52% decrease in the official numbers. The seeds of chavista economic disaster were already bearing fruit during this period, under Chávez.

Lack of transparency and arcane multi-tier rates make it difficult to estimate accurate numbers but certainly a decrease in national income per capita has occurred. Even being generous, the Gross National Income per Capita was reduced at least by a third over 2010-2012.  In 2013, with a black market rate of 63.70 Bs per dollar, the estimated devaluation over 2012, notwithstanding the new preferential allocation rate tier, was around 120%. Maduro claims solutions are in the works to diminish the pressure on the currency, including a market-based auction rate, which at its launch placed free market dollars over 50 Bs per dollar, and a tourist/visitor rate, which in effect will extract hard currency from anyone visiting Venezuela (current black market rates - note: distribution of this information is illegal in Venezuela).

The pressure on the currency has a twofold origin. First, the productive sector collapsed; after a frenzy of repeated expropriations and takeovers, many industries and farm production shut down. This led to increased imports of even basic staples—flour, cooking oil, sanitary napkins... Second, the greatest generator of foreign currency, the oil company PDVSA, sells its products to the government which in turn barters oil for services or sells it below market prices in petro-diplomacy efforts. The government has not paid PDVSA and has a gigantic debt with the company: $23bn as per PDVSA’s 2012 financial statements.


This is not sound economic policy. The economic consequences threaten hyperinflation. The immediate result is negative wealth distribution and this is what the Coefficient of Equality of Income Distribution (GINI) reflects. Equal distribution of increasingly scant resources is not progress. The GINI coefficient for Venezuela (39 in 2011) indeed points to a greater equality in distribution of wealth than in the past, it is the same as countries like Mauritania and Malawi, more equal distribution than in the US and a little less than in Bhutan, India or Uzbekistan. But to use the GINI the way Mr. Maduro used it in his commentary (“Venezuela has consistently reduced inequality”) is to misrepresent it as an indicator of social progress. Unless the economy as a whole creates wealth (measured by proxy with GNI/pC), this coefficient is meaningless.

Claims of poverty reduction solely by chavista policies are also dubious at best.  Poverty and indigence have decreased in Venezuela, but ceteres paribus, likely it would have been the case regardless. Chile and Colombia, countries with similar societies, reduced poverty in the same magnitude if not greater than that of Venezuela, while not using anything close to the Chávez model. According to the World Bank between 2005 and 2011 poverty declined in Venezuela by 22.16%, while in Colombia and Chile it declined by 31.14% and 20.88% respectively. 

Indicators such as literacy and infant mortality (according to UNESCO) have had positive trends over more than forty years and, during chavismo, these trends continued. Education from elementary to graduate has always been free, as a constitutional right throughout the 20th century and before that by presidential decree promulgated by president Antonio Guzmán Blanco on June 27, 1870. Health care as a universal right has always existed in Venezuela and all governments have attempted to provide it in the past. These are not chavista achievements or ideals, as Maduro claims.

Reasserting policies to entrench chavismo, the Minister for Education, Héctor Rodríguez, recently said “it’s not as if we’re here to raise people out of poverty and have them become middle class squalids.” Squalid is the routine derisory term used by the government to describe the opposition. This statement was made while announcing mandatory rules for teaching Chávez-socialism, starting from Pre-K, in all schools, public, private or parochial. A continuous history rewrite.


Legitimacy of the Government and the Protests


“Since 1998, the movement founded by Hugo Chávez has won more than a dozen presidential, parliamentary and local elections through an electoral process that former American President Jimmy Carter has called ‘the best in the world.’ Recently, the United Socialist Party (USP) received an overwhelming mandate in mayoral elections in December 2013, winning 255 out of 337 municipalities.”  Thus spake Maduro in the New York Times.


This statement has several problems. The USP in fact won 240 municipalities. The other 15 Maduro claims are from splinters from that unity, including so called “true chavistas” that reject him. Overall in those elections, the USP lost 23 municipalities to the non-leftist opposition. This opposition now holds 75 municipalities, including all major cities in the country. The Maduro regime has responded by curtailing access to federal services and depriving legally entitled funds to opposition municipalities; in the same way it has done to states held by opposition governors.

But the use of former President Carter to defend elections held in Venezuela is most egregious and upsetting. Maduro refers to a Carter speech from September 2012, yet fails to mention that it was regarding the technology of the balloting system. The article he links to is about the fully automated touch-screen voting system, developed in Venezuela, which uses thumbprint recognition technology and prints receipts to confirm voters’ choices.

Maduro fails to mention the Carter Center for Democracy findings on the 2012 and 2013 presidential elections summarized as: “There is not agreement, however, about the quality of the voting conditions and whether every registered voter is able to vote one time, and only one time. In addition, the report finds a series of inequities in campaign conditions in terms of both access to financial resources and access to the media, which diminish the competitiveness of elections, particularly in a legal framework that permits indefinite reelection of public officials.”

It is noteworthy that in 2003 a drive to recall then president Chávez was sponsored by the opposition. Over three million signatures were gathered. Hugo Chávez announced in February 2004 that the list of names had been seized by the government. The list was published on-line and, in effect, became an enemies list with many signatories fired from their jobs, expelled from their schools and generally persecuted in an electoral intimidation tactic by the regime to fight the recall referendum later that year.  To this day, intimidation continues.

In April of 2013 the special election called on account of Chávez’s death resulted in the election of Nicolas Maduro, his hand picked successor. The official results were 50.61% to 49.12%, a difference of close to 230,000 votes over opposition leader Henrique Capriles. Despite calls by the opposition for a full recount and requests by UNASUR and the OAS for the same, the National Electoral Council, stacked by government loyalists, did a selective sampling audit and certified the results. The opposition has never conceded the legitimacy of this election, only acknowledged the de facto regime. In light of the Carter Center report regarding the abusive use of incumbency and media by the government and the continued intimidation of the electorate, these results at the very least are suspect, reflect a souring of chavismo among the population, and indicate massive opposition to the regime.

The legitimacy of the incumbent Maduro’s ascension—notwithstanding birther claims by the opposition—is constitutionally questionable.  Article 229 prohibits the vice president or any governor from being elected president.  Henrique Capriles resigned as Governor of Miranda state on June 6, 2012 to run against Chávez to whom he lost in October. Capriles was reelected governor in December 2012 and subsequently ran against Vice President Maduro upon Chávez’s death. No record of Capriles’ resignation for this election is available but that does not give Maduro a free pass. Any waiver to either candidate would contravene the constitution.

On the other hand the protests on the streets are constitutionally protected not only by guarantees of freedom of speech and assembly. Article 350 recognizes the right of “the people of Venezuela… to disavow any regime, law or authority that goes against democratic values, principles and guarantees, or that infringes human rights.”

Besides the undermining of democratic values and principles described above, over the last two months there have been arrests of opposition leaders, divestiture of elected officials and at least 81 documented human rights violations. There is continued harassment to opposition newspapers through millionaire lawsuits and withholding of foreign currency to buy paper, and intimidation and outright closures of media in general, including CNN and the regional news channel NTN24.


An Illusion of Democracy

What began as a student protest against crime in the streets has become a festering unrest.  It is hard to gauge the scale of the protest because the government suppresses information, while the opposition magnifies and publicizes any incident. But by calling the recent round of exploratory meetings to create “dialogue” roundtables the government tacitly acknowledges there is a political crisis.

This call for dialogue is a savvy political move by Maduro to splinter the opposition, trick an international audience into believing in a mirage of conciliatory moves, and attempt to create a puppet opposition for an illusion of democracy. In 2002, after the failed coup against Chávez, similar talks were held and promises of tolerance made. Those promises were all broken by the regime. Signatories of that accord include the current president. The record is not good, but internationally talk of sanctions has been suspended while the “dialogue” unfolds. Dialogue talks--live on TV-- that began with Maduro asserting: “I am not here to negotiate or make any deals”.

Just because a regime holds elections it does not mean it is a functioning democracy. Otherwise places such as North Korea, Cuba, Syria, Saddam’s Iraq and Mubarak’s Egypt would be considered showcases of democracy with reportedly massive happy voter turnout. As of Jan. 2014 Venezuela was ranked 133rd out of 150 countries in the World Democracy Profile by Worldaudit.org., labeled a “hybrid regime” (ranks below “flawed democracy”) by the Economist Intelligence Unit, and ranked 121 out of 128 in the BTI (Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Transformation Index) measure of democracy and freedom.


National Assembly Member Maria Corina Machado
leaves a rally attacked by tear gas.
Symptoms of lack of democracy include:jailing opponents, suppressing protests, repressive militias, media control,and a rigged electoral process. In a cynical turn of events on the same day President Maduro’s essay “Venezuela: A Call for Peace” was published,opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was being tear gassed in a public rally and divested of her congressional seat. Venezuela is not a “participatory” democracy. At best it can be called a Totalitarian Democracy.

The situation in Venezuela has parallels to Iran 2009. At that time, after a contested election, images of popular protests and counter repression by government militias and hit squads filled TV screens and news outlets.Social media was awash with feeds of the protest. The death of Neda Agha-Soltan seared many an eye and there was a belief that change would come out of the sacrifice and pain of so many youths.
To this day Iran, a staunch Venezuela ally, remains under a totalitarian regime that keeps the peace with an iron fist.

----------------------------------------------------------
Background and references:

Leopoldo López:
WikiLeaks – LL goes to the Barrios to Gather Political Support: http://www.cablegatesearch.net/cable.php?id=09CARACAS1330&q=leopoldo-lopez
LL in Popular Barrio Forum: http://globovision.com/articulo/redes-populares-de-unt-debatieron-la-reforma-en-el-cementerio-2

Henrique Capriles
HC has Sex with Gorillas: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/venezuela-president-pushes-back-using-bellicose-words-and-brute-force/2014/03/18/55357a74-aecf-11e3-b8b3-44b1d1cd4c1f_story.html
HC Leads a Homosexual Prostitution Ring: http://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia-maduro-acusa-capriles-ser-complice-red-prostitucion-homosexual-20130815094350.html

Maria Corina Machado
MCM is an Empty Doll:  http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2013/09/06/en-la-pagina-de-an-llaman-a-maria-corina-machado-la-muneca-hueca-de-la-burguesia-imagen/
MCM Needs to Keep Her Place: http://caracaschronicles.com/2014/04/01/political-rape/
MCM is not Smart, Needs Help: http://www.aporrealos.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=799773&sid=8f2b3eab6c3f893f033f99c5aa718be9
MCM is Pitiful: http://www.aporrea.org/oposicion/a186460.html

Illegal Dollars
New Law makes it Illegal to Buy/Sell Dollars as Commodities: http://www.correodelorinoco.gob.ve/tema-dia/ley-contra-ilicitos-cambiarios-evitara-que-se-trate-al-dolar-como-mercancia/
History of Foreign CurrencyExchange Regulations: http://www.monografias.com/trabajos13/monodef/monodef.shtml
Failed Attempts to Curtail Black Market Dollars: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/02/27/how-a-sensible-economic-policy-might-have-sparked-venezuelas-protests/
Arbitrage and the Bolivar: https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-law-of-unintended-consequences-sitme-and-venezuelas-currency-market/
Currency Inflation: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-25/venezuela-s-credit-rating-cut-by-fitch-on-inflation-currency.html
History of Bolivar devaluations: http://www.monedasdevenezuela.net/articulos/cronologia-de-la-devaluacion-del-bolivar-venezolano/
Historic Value/Black Market Rates of the Bolivar: http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Cotizaci%C3%B3n_hist%C3%B3rica_del_bol%C3%ADvar_venezolano
Economic Snapshot Venezuela 2013: http://www.slideshare.net/miguelangelsantos/perspectivas-econmicas-de-venezuela-2013

Income and Income Distribution (GINI)
World Bank Data, Venezuela: http://data.worldbank.org/country/venezuela-rb
World Bank Data, Chile: http://data.worldbank.org/country/chile
World Bank Data, Colombia: http://data.worldbank.org/country/colombia
GINI Index, World: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2172.html
Our Goal is not to Make Squalids out of the Poor: http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140225/rodriguez-no-vamos-a-sacarlos-de-la-pobreza-para-que-se-vuelvan-escual

Oil/Oil Prices
PDVSA Financial Statements: http://www.pdvsa.com/index.php?tpl=interface.sp/design/biblioteca/readdoc.tpl.html&newsid_obj_id=10919&newsid_temas=111
Historical Price of Oil, in Constant Dollars: http://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/historical_oil_prices_table.asp

Industrial and Farming Collapse
Despite Official Numbers, Shortages Increase: http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140101/shortage-prevailed-despite-increased-agriculture-production-in-venezue
Venezuela Economy in Numbers:http://www.indexmundi.com/venezuela/economy_profile.html
Structural Productivity Problems: http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/07/20/venezuelas_productivity_problem

Elections
Electoral results, Municipal Elections 2013: http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_municipales_de_Venezuela_de_2013
Official electoral results, Municipal and Presidential Elections 2013: http://www.eleccionesvenezuela.com/resultados-elecciones-venezuela.php
http://www.cne.gob.ve/resultado_presidencial_2013/r/1/reg_000000.html
Concentration and influence - undermining opposition districts; http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=13&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CDMQFjACOAo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.scielo.cl%2Fpdf%2Frevcipol%2Fv30n1%2Fart03.pdf&ei=eqBQU4XXHuH50gGStYGgBg&usg=AFQjCNFDBQAufFbiw933bnpgH6Nx8Aq_WQ
Municipal results 2013: http://www.infobae.com/2013/12/08/1529456-elecciones-venezuela-maduro-festeja-el-interior-pero-pierde-las-capitales
Carter Center for Democracy Report on Venezuela: https://www.cartercenter.org/news/pr/venezuela-070313.html
Carter speech in Atlanta: http://www.globalresearch.ca/former-us-president-carter-venezuelan-electoral-system-best-in-the-world/5305779
Human Rights Watch report on Chávez: http://www.hrw.org/reports/2008/venezuela0908/index.htm
Electoral enemies list by the Venezuela government (Human Rights Watch report) http://www.hrw.org/reports/2008/venezuela0908/2.htm#_Toc207173131

No Negotiation or Deals
The Implosion in the US’ Backyard: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/jackson-diehl-venezuela-the-uprising-no-one-is-noticing/2014/03/03/19ab5828-9fc7-11e3-b8d8-94577ff66b28_story.html
The Revolution is Non-Negotiable: http://www.latercera.com/noticia/mundo/2014/04/678-573208-9-maduro-asegura-que-no-habra-negociacion-o-pactos-en-dialogo-con-oposicion.shtml
http://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2014/04/10/dialogovenezuela/comment-page-1/

Shutting Down the Opposition
Close the Radios: http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/08/01/venezuela-media-idUSN0146551720090801
Control Print Media: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2013/09/12/Venezuelas-press-faces-closures-as-newsprint-runs-out/UPI-96431379024223/
Not a Democracy: http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2013/venezuela#.U1CrF6JYOSo

Carlos J. Rangel
The Failures of Chavismo: https://www.facebook.com/notes/carlos-j-rangel/with-a-heavy-heart-facing-the-failures-of-chavismo/10153925730160417
The Social Explosion In Venezuela: https://www.facebook.com/notes/carlos-j-rangel/the-social-explosion-in-venezuela/10153826072310417
Blogspot – On Iran 2009: http://carlosjrangel.blogspot.com/2009/09/selected-essays-on-iran-election.html
Campaign Journal 2008: http://books.google.com/books?id=MokNZ2AiVO0C&printsec=frontcover&dq=campaign+journal+2008&cd=1#v=onepage&q&f=false

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